Water NeosTier 2
at LLE DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-2-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -4.3 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1240
· median 1240
· range 1240–1240
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1183
Q3 1370
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
